Opinion polls cannot be trusted…

“What they do is cheat constantly; they use every opportunity to manipulate public opinion,” Trump said, referring, for example, to Democrats and their supporters allegedly trying to discredit the incumbent government three weeks earlier, during the Republican Party convention in Dallas, ahead of the US midterm elections. President Trump later tried to pass off the remark as a joke. Nevertheless, with statements like these, he is deliberately undermining confidence in potential election results and democratic institutions ahead of November 3, 2026, preparing the public for his own version and interpretation of the vote.

Trump has laid the groundwork for a narrative in which a possible Republican defeat would be blamed not on him personally, but on manipulation of the US electoral system. Such a scenario could indeed unfold if the Republicans lose. Most opinion polls already point to a blue wave—that is, a decisive Democratic victory—which could give Democrats a majority of seats in the House of Representatives, or Congress. The Democrats are indeed likely to win a majority of seats in Congress.

Of course, a Democratic surge is no guarantee of success. They may fail to hold on to all their Senate seats, though they could still gain as many as four seats currently held by Republicans. Some candidates might simply not make it onto the ballot.

The upcoming US midterm elections will, in effect, serve as a verdict on the incumbent president’s performance. Americans are deeply dissatisfied with the war in the Middle East, which has driven up fuel prices and the cost of living in the United States. The purchasing power of the dollar and wages have become central concerns for the public.

Trump’s approval rating, meanwhile, has fallen well below even the level recorded in the final months of Joe Biden’s presidency. It is worth noting that the president’s party traditionally loses votes and seats in Congress and the Senate in midterm elections. How substantial those losses will be this time depends largely on the president’s popularity. Of course, anything could happen before early November. Past experience shows that opinion polls do not always capture the full picture.

Nevertheless, even if the Democrats do win a majority of seats in Congress, their own approval ratings are unlikely to be particularly high. Europe is especially interested in the outcome because a Democratic victory is seen there as a reason to hope that US foreign and trade policies will become more predictable.

However, even a Democratic majority in Congress will not be able to fully constrain Trump. This will be particularly difficult in foreign affairs, which fall under the executive branch and are the president’s personal responsibility. Since returning to the White House, Donald Trump has refused to compromise with Congress whenever he could, or simply acted without waiting for its approval—even while Republicans held majorities in both chambers until recently. Trump has issued a whole series of executive orders under his emergency powers, leaving Congress and the Senate on the sidelines of the decision-making process.

The same applies, for example, to the law granting the president special powers during wartime, which Trump used to launch airstrikes on Iran in February 2026. So even if Democrats lead in the House and Senate after the midterm elections, Trump will still be able to act against their wishes by exercising his presidential veto.

That said, the Democrats will not be entirely toothless. They could, for example, launch investigations and hold numerous hearings, as well as issue subpoenas, into the Trump administration’s policies over the past several years, which may be found to have been misguided. Alternatively, Trump could be implicated in the Epstein files and face subsequent corruption allegations. Democrats could also criticize immigration officials and other government employees for abusing their authority and violating the law. They may once again try to create conditions for impeachment proceedings against Trump or, at the very least, force one of his cabinet members to resign. The defense secretary or the treasury secretary could be among those affected.

Democrats could also use a potential majority to block an increase in the debt ceiling, forcing nearly all federal employees to take unpaid leave or be furloughed, with a few exceptions. If Democrats also win the Senate, they could additionally block Trump’s nominees for positions such as those on the Supreme Court or the Federal Reserve.

In any case, a Democratic victory in the congressional elections will not bring fundamental changes to US foreign policy. A Democratic advantage in the legislative branch will not necessarily give them a genuine free hand to make sweeping changes. They may weaken the effectiveness and power of the presidency, but they are unlikely to be able to stop Trump’s destructive or revolutionary actions.

Europe is interested in the US midterm elections because they may reveal a great deal about Trump’s own political future. Democrats in America are now working to sharpen the focus on, and clarify, the goals they are pursuing; their efforts are therefore increasingly purposeful. Candidates with distinctly more left-wing views may win in many districts.

A Democratic victory in the upcoming congressional elections could also indicate the level of support their presidential candidate might receive when Americans go to the polls again in 2028. The outcome will also shape the field of presidential candidates. But even if a Democrat enters the White House in 2028, that will not automatically mean an immediate return to the Obama or Biden era. A new generation of Democrats has emerged, and it is less defined by classical, traditional American values or by principles of openness and internationalism. Above all, they will focus on at least reforming and renewing the country’s political system. Ultimately, the key for Democrats will be their willingness to support alliances and engage partners in pursuing their interests, unlike the current situation.

Author: Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Professor in the Department of World Economy and International Finance, Faculty of International Economic Relations, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Mikhail Vyacheslavovich Zharikov.