Global Economy Under Pressure: January–September 2026 Review

The first nine months of 2026 were marked by two major shocks to the global economy: geopolitical and trade-related. Both were linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the effective disruption of trade with Persian Gulf countries. The suspension of oil supplies from the region pushed Brent crude prices sharply above the psychologically significant threshold of $100 per barrel, dealing a serious blow to energy markets that had not yet adapted to the new restrictions.

At the same time, the closure of the strait disrupted the mineral fertilizer market, as a significant share of global supplies passes through the region's ports. Reduced fertilizer availability accelerated food price increases in several African and Asian countries, where dependence on imported fertilizers is particularly high. This, in turn, heightened the risk of a food crisis and increased social tensions in these countries.

Another source of uncertainty was the continued tariff pressure exerted by the United States on Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. Against this backdrop, global trade growth slowed to 2.2–3.1%, following a sharp surge in late 2025. At that time, companies around the world had significantly increased their purchases in anticipation of new U.S. tariffs. Efforts to stockpile raw materials and components in advance temporarily boosted trade flows. However, once the tariffs came into effect, this effect quickly faded, and the subsequent slowdown was a natural consequence.

Global inflation reversed its multi-year downward trend, rising to 4.7% from 4.1% in 2025. This was largely driven by higher energy and food prices, which intensified pressure on both consumers and producers. Central banks responded predictably. The European Central Bank raised interest rates to contain inflation expectations and prevent price pressures from spreading further to goods and services. The Bank of Russia, meanwhile, suspended its gradual reduction of the key interest rate, keeping it at 14%. This pause in monetary easing indicates that regulators are concerned about inflation becoming entrenched at elevated levels, particularly amid exchange rate volatility and rising import costs.

Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in global trade have significantly worsened the economic outlook for 2026. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global economic growth is expected to fall below 3%, compared with 3.4% a year earlier. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the World Bank are even more cautious, projecting growth of 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. The differences in these estimates reflect varying assumptions about when shipping through the Persian Gulf will resume and how severely tariff measures will affect supply chains.

Economic performance across major countries and regions remains uneven. According to the OECD's updated forecasts, U.S. GDP is expected to grow by 2.2% in 2026, while the eurozone economy is projected to expand by 0.9%. This is largely attributable to strong activity in the semiconductor and AI infrastructure sectors, which continue to attract investment and support demand in the technology industry despite deteriorating overall economic conditions. China's growth forecast stands at 4.6%, reflecting resilient domestic demand and government stimulus measures. India's growth is estimated at 7.1%. According to the IMF, the highest growth rates are still expected in India, where GDP could increase by 6.2%, Vietnam at 8.2% (following an August forecast revision), and Indonesia at 4.9%. Together with China (4.2%), these countries account for more than 40% of global economic growth. This further demonstrates that Asia is becoming the main driver of global economic expansion amid slowing Western economies and persistent geopolitical risks.

Author: Doctor of Economics, Professor at the Department of World Economy and International Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian FederationGennady Anatolyevich Shcherbakov.