Reorientation of the Russian Federation’s foreign trade toward Asian markets

It should be noted that in January — May 2026, the Russian Federation’s foreign trade turnover reached USD 295.7 billion, showing an increase of 8.3 % compared with the same period of the previous year. Growth was observed in both exports and imports. The volume of shipments abroad increased by 8.5 %, reaching USD 177.4 billion, while inbound supplies rose by 8.1 %, to USD 118.3 billion. The foreign trade surplus for the period increased by 9.4 % year-on-year and amounted to USD 59.1 billion.

Such dynamics indicate the continued competitiveness of key commodity groups in Russian exports and the maintenance of a sufficient level of consumer and investment demand for imported products.  It is also important to emphasize that the growth in the surplus is not solely the result of increasing physical volumes of deliveries, but is largely driven by the price component, especially in the segment of raw materials.

Despite difficulties, the most significant structural shift of the reporting period is the faster-paced growth of trade with Asian countries. Russia’s exports to the countries of this macroregion reached USD 141.5 billion, while imports rose by 8.8 %, to USD 79.6 billion (data as of June 2026). Total trade turnover with Asia amounted to USD 221.1 billion, showing growth of 12.3 %. These indicators illustrate that the Asian direction is becoming the central vector of Russia’s foreign economic activity.

A key role in this process is played by trade with the People’s Republic of China. According to Chinese customs data, bilateral trade in January — May 2026 grew by 22.9 %, to USD 109.5 billion. Russian supplies to China increased by 20.2 %, to USD 60.4 billion, while imports of Chinese goods rose by 26.4 %, to USD 49.2 billion. Comparing these figures with the Federal Customs Service statistics, one may conclude that China accounted for about 43 % of Russia’s exports to Asia and almost 62 % of imports from the region. This asymmetry reflects not only China’s growing demand for Russian raw materials, but also the increasing dependence of the Russian economy on supplies of Chinese industrial products, including machinery, equipment, and consumer goods.

From an economic perspective, this configuration of trade relations creates an ambivalent situation. On the one hand, it ensures the necessary level of domestic market supply and supports investment activity through imports of capital goods. On the other hand, — it increases the structural vulnerability of the economy to external shocks associated with fluctuations in market conditions in China or changes in tariff and non-tariff regulation.

While trade with Asian partners shows steady growth, interaction with European countries continues to decline. Russian exports to European states over the five months of 2026 fell by 8.4 % year-on-year — from USD 25.1 billion to USD 23 billion, while imports from Europe increased by 8 %, from USD 28 billion to USD 30.3 billion. Eurostat data confirm a further contraction in trade turnover: in January — April it decreased by 16.5 % compared with the same period last year.

The main reason for this dynamic is the European Union’s gradual отказ from Russian energy resources and fertilizers. Over four months, Russian deliveries to the EU decreased by 30.3 %, while Russia’s purchases of European products fell by only 1.5 %. This indicates that the reorientation process is asymmetric: the Russian side is forced to seek alternative markets for traditional export goods, while demand for European products in Russia remains relatively stable, although it is affected by sanctions restrictions and logistical barriers.

It should be noted that the reduction in trade with the EU is not solely the result of political decisions, but reflects deep structural changes in the European economy aimed at reducing dependence on Russian resources. In the long term, this may lead to further diversification of export routes and a stronger role for alternative transport corridors, in particular within the development of the International North–South Transport Corridor and the expansion of cooperation with the states of Central Asia and the Middle East.

An analysis of the commodity structure of Russian exports makes it possible to identify two main key growth factors. The first  – is  mineral products. The second -  products of the agro-industrial complex. Supplies of mineral products (primarily crude oil and petroleum products) increased by 4.3 %, reaching USD 96.1 billion. Notably, in January — February this segment showed a decline of 23.2 % year-on-year; however, in spring the situation changed dramatically against the backdrop of rising energy prices. One of the key factors affecting price dynamics was supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which led to increased volatility in the global oil market and, as a result, to higher export revenues for Russian companies.

Exports of food products and agricultural raw materials grew by 20.3 %, amounting to USD 18.4 billion. This growth was driven mainly by an increase in physical shipment volumes. In January — May, Russia exported more than 33 million tons of agro-industrial products, which is 26 % higher than in the same period last year. A significant contribution to the dynamics came from shipments of grain and oil-and-fat products, which enjoy steady demand in the markets of Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The dominance of the raw-material segment underscores the ongoing dependence of Russia’s foreign trade on conditions in global energy markets.

Notably, within the import structure the most visible growth was in machinery, equipment, and vehicles — up 9.3 %, to USD 57.5 billion. Purchases of chemical products increased by 6.8 % (to USD 23.7 billion), food products — by 5.4 % (to USD 18 billion), textiles, clothing, and footwear — by 11.3 % (to USD 8 billion). Such dynamics correlate with Rosstat data on rising consumer activity in the second quarter of 2026 and may be viewed as an indicator of sustained domestic demand. However, it is still too early to speak of a stable trend, since a significant role is played by the reorientation toward alternative sources of supply, which is accompanied by higher logistics costs and, as a consequence, growth in the value of imports even if physical volumes are maintained or reduced.

Obviously, in the future further development of foreign trade activity will be determined by the ability of the Russian economy to adapt to changing conditions of global trade. Of particular importance are the development of transport and logistics infrastructure, the digitalization of customs procedures, and the strengthening of partnerships with states ready for mutually beneficial cooperation.

Author: Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of World Economy and World Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Natalya Ivanovna Chovgan.